红河州凝冻天气预报预警系统

通过实地考察、历史统计等确定凝冻天气多发易发点,然后进行区划分级,分别建立预报方程,做出凝冻天气预报。包括以下几个方面的内容:确定凝冻天气多发易发点,并进行区划;找出不同凝冻天气等级的温度临界值;选取凝冻天气预报因子,建立预报方程;在实践中检验,对预报方程作进一步的订正;建立基本信息数据库以及凝冻天气预报预警发布平台。     

Carrying capacity for finfish aquaculture. Part I—Near-field semi-analytic solutions

The ecosystem carrying capacity for aquaculture cage farming in South Australia is based on guidelines that the maximum feed rates (and farmed fish biomass) be determined such that the concentration c of a given dissolved nutrient does not exceed a prescribed value (say c_P). The problem then is one of relating the nutrient flux F, due to feeding, to the tracer concentration c. To this end the evolution of concentration is modelled using the depth-averaged advection–diffusion equation for a constant source flux F over a finite area cage (or lease) and for both constant and time dependent (tidal) velocities. The divergence theorem is applied to this equation to obtain a new scale estimate of the relation between the flux F and the maximum concentration c_max of a nutrient in the cage region: c_max ≈ F·T*, where T* is a time scale of cage “flushing” that involves both advection and diffusion. The maximum allowed nutrient flux F (and carrying capacity of fish biomass) can then be simply estimated from: F ≈ c_P/T*. New semi-analytic solutions of the advection–diffusion equation for a finite (cage) source are then derived to explore the physics of concentration evolution for constant and tidally varying currents, and to show that the estimate c_max ≈ F·T* is surprisingly robust and generally within 40% of the exact values for a wide set of advective/diffusive parameters. The results generally should find application in other finite source flux problems in the coastal oceans including desalination plants and waste water outfalls.     

带常利率和相依结构更新风险模型的破产概率

研究了一类具有常利率及相依结构的Sparre Andersen模型, 模型中假设理赔间隔时间决定下一次理赔额的分布情况. 对一般分布情形, 利用推广后的调节系数方程与递归更新技巧, 得到了此模型的最终破产概率上界的估计. 最后以理赔额和理赔间隔时间都服从指数分布的情况下的实例分析来说明该模型的有效性.     

自然降水与太行山区玉米单产形成的关系——以武安市为例

为了研究太行山区降雨量对玉米单产的变化规律,指导玉米实际生产。本研究选择武安市降雨量和玉米单产为研究对象,采用散点图、建立线性方程、线性回归显著性分析等方法,通过统计、对比描述等方式,分析武安市降雨量对玉米单产的关系。结果表明,降雨与玉米的单产之间具有一定关系,且生育期降雨量对玉米单产具有显著性影响。(1)在490 mm降雨范围内,玉米的单产随着降雨量的增加而增加,大于490 mm降雨时,玉米的单产与降雨量负相关。(2)玉米的单产受7月和8月的降雨量影响显著,且降雨量约278 mm时,玉米的单产较大。     

重庆南温泉洗浴废水用作植物灌溉水的可行性研究

重庆市温泉资源丰富,温泉洗浴废水运用于绿地灌溉可以节约成本,缓解城市的水危机。温泉洗浴废水对植物生长有正负两方面的影响,与植物的种类,温泉洗浴废水的水质等因素有关。实验以重庆市常见的两种绿地植物——冷水花木春菊为研究对象,对温泉洗浴废水中影响植物生长的pH、固体悬浮物、高锰酸钾,总溶解性固体4个常见指标进行了浓度值对比实验。运用对相对电导率拟合Logistic方程求半致死浓度值的方法,确定绿地植物所能耐受的上限阀值。以此为基础对温泉废水进行相关处理,使温泉废水既可以达到灌溉绿地的水质标准,又能最大限度地降低废水处理成本,从而充分利用水资源。     

展青霉孢子数与棒曲霉毒素含量关系的研究

重点研究展青霉在苹果汁培养基中、在静置培养和振荡培养2种培养方式下,生成的孢子数目与其棒曲霉素含量之间的关系。根据实验数据绘制出了二者之间的关系曲线,利用回归方法建立了二者的关系曲线方程。研究结果证实,展青霉在培养过程中产生的孢子数目与其棒曲霉素含量之间存在着一定的数量关系。     

粮食通风储藏的数学描述问题

文章从三方面介绍了粮食通风储藏的数学描述问题，即数学描述粮食通风储藏的基础知识，通过粮仓中热和质量传递的连续方程之体积平均形式；通风粮仓中热和质量传递的数学描棕。通过各种方程式具体描述了粮食通风储藏这个技术问题，并从而使这个技术问题系统化，理论化。     

蘑菇低温气调保鲜的初步研究

采用正交实验方法，探讨了NaCl浓度、护色时间及控制贮藏环境温度等3个因素对蘑菇子实体的开伞率、PPO酶活变化量及ADF质量分数的影响。结果表明，蘑菇经适当处理，可有效抑制其开伞和品质变化。采用均匀试验设计回归分析程序对实验结果进行拟合，得到以蘑菇开伞率、PPO酶活变化及ADF质量分数为因变量，3个因素的水平编码号为自变量的回归方程估计值与实测值吻合。相对于单纯低温保鲜，采用低温气调保鲜的蘑菇，其品质和理化指标更为理想。     

科尔沁草甸草地土壤呼吸特征

在2010年,利用便携式CO2分析仪(Li-6400)对科尔沁草甸草地生态系统土壤呼吸进行测定,并根据同步观测的温度数据建立了土壤呼吸与土壤温度的关系模型.结果表明:土壤呼吸速率日变化表现为单峰型,最高值出现在下午14:00左右,最低值出现在凌晨;季节变化为夏季最大,为6.70～15.29 μmol·m-2·s-1,冬季最小,为0.02～3.21 μmol·m-2·s-1;土壤呼吸速率与土壤5cm温度呈显著指数相关,土壤温度能反映该草甸草地土壤呼吸的78.7％,Q10值为2.88;根呼吸约占土壤总呼吸的6.6％～29.4％,平均值为18.9％.     

Allometric model of the Reineke equation for Japanese cypress (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Chamaecyparis obtusa</Emphasis>) and red pine (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Pinus densiflora</Emphasis>) stands

An allometric model that explains the mechanism of the difference in the slope of the Reineke equation (A) among species was proposed based on the allometric relationships of mean tree height (H) to quadratic mean diameter D (H ∝ D ^θ ) and stand density N (H ∝ N ^δ ), i.e., A = θ/δ. The proposed model was fitted to Japanese cypress (Chamaecyparis obtusa Endl.) and red pine (Pinus densiflora) stands. The allometric exponents θ and δ were, respectively, 0.8995 and −0.5000 for cypress and 0.8612 and −0.6619 for pine. The difference between cypress and pine was significant for δ but not for θ. Inserting the exponents into the model resulted in predicted slopes of −1.7991 for cypress and −1.3011 for pine. The difference in the slope of the Reineke equation between the two species was produced by characteristics related to the tree crown, rather than characteristics related to stem slenderness. The proposed model enables us to estimate the slope of the Reineke equation from commonly measured stand attributes, such as mean tree height and quadratic mean diameter. Therefore, the proposed model is expected to be practical and convenient for estimating the slope of the Reineke equation and for explaining the mechanism of its variation among species. The model should be also accepted as a generalized model of the stand density versus quadratic mean diameter relationship, whereas the original Reineke equation should be seen as a specific case of this model.